The post-Thanksgiving run is a seasonal feature of the transportation market, particularly for dry van. What’s harder to interpret this year is whether the recent 151% surge in spot market postings is a short-term blip or an early signal of broader tightening. Some point to increased enforcement of rules for non-domiciled and non-English-speaking drivers as a driver of the shock, and that may be contributing. From our perspective, it is likely a mix of early-winter weather, peak-season demand, and stepped-up enforcement that compresses capacity in a short window. Once the holiday surge passes, the market will need time to show whether this movement is temporary or more durable.
Flatbed is also seeing elevated activity, though the drivers are different. Week-over-week demand is up roughly 85%, likely influenced by weather disruptions and catch-up from a slow, late Thanksgiving. More broadly, all three modal indices are up 40% or more year over year for November, while truck supply is down approximately 20% year over year. Activity is clearly higher than this time last year, even if the sustainability of that activity remains uncertain.
Takeaway: the market feels tight because supply and demand are adjusting in real time, and it is still too early to know whether this is signal or noise.
Picture Credit: DAT